RBI adds $5 bn to forex kitty since mid-March; rupee breaches 60-a-dollar mark but analysts say central bank will cap further gains
This comes within two months of China announcing an investment of $3 billion from its trillion-dollar forex kitty for a 10 per cent stake in the US-based global private equity giant Blackstone.
India's forex reserves decreased by $587 million to $635.08 billion for the week ended December 24, the RBI said on Friday. In the previous week ended December 17, the overall reserves had decreased by $160 million to $635.67 billion. The kitty had touched a lifetime high of $642.45 billion in the week ended September 3, 2021.
In the steepest weekly fall ever, India's forex reserves slid by $11.17 billion to $606.47 billion as the currency came under pressure due to geopolitical developments, according to the Reserve Bank data released on Friday. For the previous reporting week ended March 25, the overall reserves had slid by $2.03 billion to $617.65 billion. The steep fall in the reserves was because of a decline in the core currency assets, which fell by $10.73 billion to $539.73 billion.
Government is also will also enter into an agreement with Japan for a $50 billion swap.
The country's foreign exchange reserves crossed the $600 billion mark for the first time after increasing by $6.842 billion in the week ended June 4, RBI data showed on Friday. The reserves surged to a record $605.008 billion in the reporting week, helped by a rise in foreign currency assets (FCA), a major component of the overall reserves, as per weekly data by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). In the previous week ended May 28, 2021, the reserves had swelled by $5.271 billion to $598.165 billion.
The three-year tenure of Raghuram Rajan saw the RBI adding a net of $92 billion to the kitty.
For the week under review, foreign currency assets, which are the biggest parts of the reserves, increased by $1.642 billion to $410.453 billion.
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The trade deficit makes up an important part of the current account deficit, which had touched an all-time high of 4.8 per cent in 2012-13.
The country's foreign exchange reserves vaulted beyond $140 billion mark as inflows into the kitty swelled by $2.87 billion for the week ended March 11 due to heavy intervention in the market by Reserve Bank of India.
India's gold reserves were also up by $297.7 million to $19.33 billion
US brokerage Bank of America-Merrill Lynch on Tuesday said its sees the first rate cut this fiscal only in March next as inflation is expected to fall only by December end on a decline in commodity prices driven by the US Fed tapering.
The foreign exchange kitty had crossed the half-a-trillion mark for the first time in the week ended June 5, 2020, after it had swelled by $8.223 billion to stand at $501.703 billion.
What the reserves offer for now is improved import coverage of about 13 months, almost double the 2013 level of less than seven months. And, ammunition to arrest a rapid rupee slide, says Anup Roy.
Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das on Monday said despite the latest headwinds arising from the Jackson Hole summit leading to extreme volatility, our banking system and financial markets are strong enough to withstand such pressures. Taking the markets by surprise, US Fed chair Jerome Powell had told the annual Jackson Hole summit of central bankers and economists last week that he would have to keep raising federal fund rates to tame inflation, which remains the biggest challenge to the world's largest economy. He also warned of the pains that such monetary policy actions would create on growth and jobs.
Officials asked what the point was in going through banks when the government has to give guarantees.
India Ratings has in its latest report has maintained a bearish outlook for gold prices for the current financial year.
Heavy investment inflows and revaluation of currencies led to a surge in the country's foreign exchange by a record $1.82 billion during the week ending November 26, 2004.
Robust trade and overseas investment inflows along with revaluation of currencies propelled India's foreign exchange reserves to rise further by $1.56 billion to cross $125 billion mark during the week ended November 19.
It plans to use it as collateral, along with forex reserves, to print currency.
Rise in reserves was predominantly on account of increase in FCAs
After witnessing only a marginal rise in inflows for three weeks, India's foreign exchange reserves rose by $1 billion to $142.54 billion for the week ended April 22, 2005.
The reserves growth picked up speed in the second quarter, with $178 billion added, ending the decline in the first two months when monthly exports tumbled to near a decade low, the apex bank, People's Bank of China said on Wednesday. China's huge stockpiles, which expanded by 17.84 per cent in the first half year on year, are more than double those of Japan, the second largest holding $1.02 trillion.
The central bank may be permitted to lend to the oil companies through authorised dealers in foreign exchange at a cheaper rate of say 4.5-5 per cent. The oil companies can meet their import payment commitments in the foreign currency borrowed from RBI.
After selling dollars for the past few months, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) may take a hands-off approach before its annual account closing by not trying to prop up the rupee as geopolitical tensions show signs of stabilising with global crude oil prices easing from its $140 peak. The central bank was a net buyer of dollars between April and September, and then turned a net seller in the following months, the data released by the RBI showed. The RBI continued to be a net buyer of $36.6 billion in this fiscal year - between April and January. In 2020-21, it purchased $68 billion on a net basis.
Bank of America (BofA) Securities expects India to be the third-largest economy in the world by 2031. The economic rise could become a reality by 2028, but the Covid pandemic delayed the pace, BofA Securities economists Indranil Sen Gupta and Aastha Gudwani wrote in a report.
Record equity divestment by the Reliance Group in its telecom and retail businesses garnering around $23 billion revved up the deal street in 2020, which otherwise would have gone down as one of the dullest on record, and dealmakers are seeing sunnier days in 2021 given the large scope for consolidation in a slew of sectors ravaged by the pandemic. With Jio Platforms alone garnering over $16 billion (Rs 1,18,318 crore) by selling 25.24 per cent stake and Reliance Retail notching up $6.4 billion (Rs 47,265 crore) by divesting around 9 per cent shareholding, the deal street signed off with $85 billion in the deal kitty across 1,270 transactions. This is higher by about 10 per cent over 2019. What is significant is that over a third of the total deal value came from Reliance transactions, say investment bankers.
Rajan strongly defends RBI's decision to hold the key rates in the absence of any new data points.
Rajan tells RBI colleagues he will be returning to academics
RIL, Essar, Adani have sounded bankers to raise funds abroad in the coming weeks
